How’s 2019 for Nissan leaving Ghosn?

The most dramatic event was Ghosn’s arrest and escape, which in a sense became a turning point in the Nissan-Renault-Mitsubishi alliance. As for Nissan, which left Ghosn, under the leadership of Makoto Uchida, the performance of the first three quarters of the 2019 fiscal year was not satisfactory, with net income of 7.5073 trillion yen, down 12.5% ​​year-on-year; operating profit was 54.3 billion yen, year-on-year. fell 82.7%; operating profit margin fell from 3.7% in the first three quarters of 2018 to 0.7%; net income fell 87.6% to 39.3 billion yen. As the first traditional car company to launch pure electric vehicles, this actually has a profound impact on the company’s investment and expansion in new energy vehicles.

01

Operations in 2019

There are some differences between Japan’s fiscal year division and our 2019 natural year, and according to the information released by Nissan, Nissan’s sales in the global market in 2019 were 5.176 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 8.4%, a decrease of 7.8% in Japan, and a decrease of 10% in the United States. %, down 17.2% in Europe and basically stable in China. After leaving Ghosn, Nissan Motor Co.’s operating profit in the first three quarters of fiscal 2019 was 179.3 billion yen, with an operating profit margin of 2.1% and a net income of 39.3 billion yen. According to Nissan’s estimates, its global sales in fiscal year 2019 are expected to be around 5.05 million units (that is to say, Q1 2020 will lose 126,000 units of sales compared to Q1 2019), and operating income for the full fiscal year is expected to increase from the previous 106,000 units. 100 million yen to 10.2 trillion yen; operating profit forecast down 43.3% from 150 billion yen to 85 billion yen; net income forecast down from 110 billion yen to 65 billion yen.

How’s 2019 for Nissan leaving Ghosn?

Figure 1 Nissan’s sales in 2019

The most troublesome thing here is that in the U.S. market, Nissan is showing an accelerated decline, so that in 2019Q+2019 (Q2+Q3+Q4) and 2020Q1+2019 (Q2+Q3+Q4), the year-on-year decline rate will be further reduced from 10%. widened to 12.7%.

How’s 2019 for Nissan leaving Ghosn?

Figure 2 Nissan’s sales strategy in the U.S. also needs to be adjusted based on profitability

In the Chinese market, Nissan’s overall sales in 2019 exceeded 1.54 million units. Affected by the epidemic, Nissan’s three factories in China have been affected to a certain extent, and the situation of the factory in Wuhan is still unclear. At the supply chain level, due to the interruption of parts supply and logistics problems, the production capacity of its three factories in Japan has also declined in February, and may even be closed. The management’s solution is also relatively simple. On the basis of the original layoff of 4,800 people, it will further reduce at least 4,300 jobs, close two factories, and reduce existing models and configurations, while cutting two US and European expenses ( consequences of declining sales in both markets). To a certain extent, this incident was also caused by the company-level influence caused by the incident with Ghosn. Nissan decided to sue Ghosn for $91 million to get this place back.

How’s 2019 for Nissan leaving Ghosn?

Figure 3 Nissan’s sales in fiscal year 2019

02

Nissan’s new energy plan

In 2019, Nissan sold 566,900 units in Europe, excluding 90,000 units in the Russian market, leaving only 476,000 units. It is expected that the total volume in the European market will fall by 3% this year. It would be nice to keep it at 450,000 units. Nissan’s new energy vehicles in Europe are mainly composed of LEAFs, with a total of 33,100 units sold, with BEV accounting for 6.9%. Nissan’s overall carbon emission pressure in Europe is not large. As Nissan’s fuel vehicles are further reduced in Europe, the overall carbon footprint is smaller. So in a sense, the new pure electric vehicle platform that Nissan has developed with Renault for so many years has little impact on the development of Nissan itself in Europe. So I saw that Renault has come out to get PHEVs a few days ago, and it is true that the main sales are concentrated in Europe and it is really affected.

How’s 2019 for Nissan leaving Ghosn?

Figure 4 The carbon emission pressure calculated by Nissan in 2018

No matter from the perspective of capacity and economic situation, the new platform we see below is also aimed at replacing LEAF on the basis of and synergizing with Renault (if it can continue).

Figure 5 Nissan’s new platform has been publicized for a long time, and nothing substantive has been released.

Summary: I think if there is no Ghosn, Nissan will not push LEAF hard in 2010. After 10 years, Nissan is still the leader of LEAF, and it is a pity that there is no substantial promotion in BEV. To a certain extent, GM, Nissan and BMW, the three traditional auto companies that tried hard before 2015, do not seem to be making fast progress now. At present, we are counting on whether the leading big brother Volkswagen MEB and the later PPE can quickly promote the global BEV popularization. From the current point of view, we cannot expect too much of the speed of BEV advancement, because each auto company is subject to different pressures and circumstances.

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